Borrowed Time

First things first. After I wrote this post on competing electoral maps and how Cook seemed to be a little bit friendly towards McCain, they updated. They had McCain leading 240-217 EVs. Now they have Obama ahead a whopping 240-174 EVs. Now all three maps are similar and correspond fairly well with others like www.fivethirtyeight.com.

Now, lately I've been wondering how big of a Democratic majority could actually be built in the House. Obviously, using partisan voting indexes (national average versus district voting average) is not the best measurement, especially because local politics and ideologies do not often mirror the national parties, but I was wondering how many seats the Republicans were still holding on to despite Democratic advantages and vice versa. The results were pretty lopsided.

At this point, after the 2006 elections, the only existing Republican reps from Democratic districts are far and few between. The most disparate R representing D guys were Mike Castle (DE-AL, D+7), Chris Shays (CT-4, D+5), and Mark Kirk (IL-10, D+4). On the other hand, take a look at this list of Democrats in "Republican" districts. Considering almost all experts expect us to pick up even more seats in the house, I don't think there is a better image for just how far the Republican Party has lost its way. I guess this is what happens when voters realize they shouldn't elect people to the government who think the government is the enemy and seek to undermine and destroy it, or "drown it in the bathtub."

Chet Edwards - R+18 (this means that if the country voted 51% for Bush in 2004, his district voted 69% for Bush.)
Jim Matheson - R+17
Gene Taylor - R+16
Nick Lampson - R+15
Earl Pomeroy - R+13
Ike Skelton - R+11
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin - R+10
Travis Childers - R+10
Brad Ellsworth - R+9
Chris Carney - R+8
Jim Marshall - R+8
Nancy Boyda - R+7
Baron Hill - R+7
Don Cayazoux - R+7
Ben Chandler - R+7
Heath Shuler - R+7
Rick Boucher - R+7
Tim Holden - R+7
John Spratt - R+6
Zach Space - R+6
John Salazar - R+6
Collin Peterson - R+6
Melissa Bean - R+5
Charlie Melancon - R+5
Bill Foster - R+5

So we have way over 25 Democratic Representatives in pretty solid Republican Territory.

I know they (at least the "Blue Dog Democrats") aren't the best followers as a bunch, and as a social liberal, some of their votes offend me, but I'm glad they did what they needed to so that when we elect President Obama, he will have a working majority. They may obstruct some of what he wants to do, but they're still better than having Republicans in those seats.

I don't blame the blogs for keeping the pressure on all these guys to be more liberal (in fact it's a very necessary thing and I applaud them for it), but I do get upset when the bigger emphasis is on attacking one's own instead of the opposition. This is the same reason just about everyone in the Democratic party hates Joe Lieberman now, just from the other side...

At the end of the day, I'll take a Chet Edwards over a Mike Castle because his affiliation keeps Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in power, not John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.

Competing Electoral Maps

Usually, if I want to check the status of the very nitty gritty horse race aspects of the elections, I consult three sources: RealClearPolitics, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Cook Political Report. I feel that between the three of them I get a good sense of the lay of the land.

All three have slightly different electoral maps, but I noticed that Cook is definitely a bit too pro-McCain and RealClearPolitics is a bit too pro-Obama. Sabato, who lies somewhere in between seems to me the most accurate.

The Cook Report has McCain leading 240-219 electoral votes with 79 electoral votes. It lists Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida as leaning McCain (in the same category as Arkansas?). Never mind that most polls show a dead even race in most of them

It also lists Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Minnesota as all leaning towards Obama. This would be fair except that Oregon and Minnesota (without Pawlenty) are much safer for Obama than the other three, all of which should be considered toss ups (although again with NM and WI more likely to fall Obama's way than NH). Cook also lists Iowa as a toss up except that every major poll taken in Iowa has Obama ahead of McCain, the most recent by 10 points.

I understand polls aren't anything, but compare Cook's map to that of RCP and Larry Sabato.

RealClearPolitics has Obama ahead 238 to 163. Among the toss ups it lists are Indiana (Cook said likely R), and Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (all lean R for Cook). It also says TX is only leaning McCain. If Obama is truly competitive (even competitive) in Texas as we get close to the election, we can expect a landslide. It should be solid McCain territory. It seems to me unrealistic to categorize IN as a toss-up (without Bayh). It's not unwinnable, but it doesn't deserve to be in the same category as Virginia, a true toss up. Also, at this point, it might still be fairer to keep NC and MO in the lean category, despite the polls I cited above. FL is definitely a toss-up.

Sabato seems the fairest. He has Obama ahead 200 to 174 with 99 toss-up EVs. I do have a few gripes though. I don't think Indiana is as solid as he claims and should only be a likely McCain victory. I also think Florida should remain a tossup (like VA) for the time being. He has NC and MO as leaning Republican, which is fair, but lists Wisconsin as a tossup, which I think should be leaning toward Obama (like NM and IA).

So basically, the map as I see it is Obama 243 to McCain 200 with 95 tossup EVs, with the breakdown as follows.

Solid Obama: WA, CA, MD, DC, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, DE
Likely Obama: OR, ME, MN
Lean Obama: WI, IA, NM, PA
Tossup: NV, CO, MI, OH, VA, FL, NH
Lean McCain: AK, MO, IN, NC
Likely McCain: MT, ND, MS, GA, AZ
Solid McCain: ID, UT, KS, NE, SD, OK, TX, AR, LA, AL, SC, TN, KY, WV

Finally, despite a lot of media coverage that made it seem like Obama lost ground in the past couple of weeks (prior to his trip), I'd just like to point out that there has not been a single national poll taken since the beginning of May that has McCain ahead of Obama.

So yeah, I'm still pretty optimistic.