I Don't Know Why I Like This Video So Much

But I do.

(Warning: Not safe for work)

Veepstakes

I think this Wall Street Journal article hit the nail on the head with their short-list of VPs for both McCain and Obama.

For Obama: Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine, Jack Reed, Kathleen Sebelius.

For McCain: Charlie Crist, Carly Fiorina, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Rob Portman, Mitt Romney, John Thune.

I don't think Obama will choose Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine, or Kathleen Sebelius. Dodd because of his connections to the insurance and banking industries. Kaine because he just doesn't seem to offer that much to the ticket besides being from VA and another "outsider." He lacks foreign policy experience, national name recognition, etc. If Obama is inexperienced (of course he isn't, but...), Kaine is a baby. Sebelius because some former Clintonites might be offended that he would pick a woman who wasn't Hillary, and also for the same reasons Kaine is unlikely (no foreign policy experience). I think Bayh, Biden, Clinton, and Reed would all be excellent picks for different reasons, but Reed is still by far my favorite.

As for McCain, I think Crist, Fiorina, and Palin are unlikely. I don't have as many reasons for that. Just more of a hunch. My picks remain Portman, Romney, or Thune. Pawlenty has proven himself, at least in my opinion, to be really boring on the talk show circuit. Portman might also be boring, but he brings major economic street cred. Of course Romney Mittens Guy Smiley would be a dream come true. Thune would be a good pick, although being pretty far right wing, would have some major policy disagreements with McCain.

Guy Smiley on the stump.
How can people like this man? Seriously.

My Picks for VP

This site is easy to use to calculate the electoral math of this upcoming presidential election.

Now, I will venture a guess to say that of the swing states mentioned, Obama is a good bet to win: Wisconsin, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and maybe Iowa.

McCain may end up taking Missouri, Florida, and Nevada.

That leaves Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, all of which I believe Obama can win. Electorally at that point Obama would be leading 247-217. Any two of those states would put Obama over the top.

Now, it has certainly been contested whether your VP pick affects the election at all. Friend of DemApples, Josh Patashnik '07, writes about all of this hullabaloo quite persuasively, arguing it doesn't matter too much in the election.

But it certainly does matter in the grand scheme of things, and it is a big test of the candidate's judgment in the eyes of the voters. For example, if John McCain were to choose Dick Cheney, voters might question his sanity.

So, on the Democratic side, there are basically three areas for swing states the Obama campaign is focusing on: the Southeast, the Midwest, and the Mountain states/Southwest.

With the Southeast, Virginia is undoubtedly a tossup. North Carolina has been mentioned but still leans Republican. Florida seems to as well in this election. Georgia is a long-shot and would depend on some massive outpouring of black voters unlikely to happen. So you are looking at about 13 electoral votes for Virginia truly up for grabs.

In the Mountain states and Southwest, we have Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado at play, and in the case of a massive Obama tidal wave, Montana. Altogether, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado comprise 19 electoral votes.

The Midwest, however, is a treasure trove of must-win electoral votes. Ohio and Michigan alone comprise 37 electoral votes. Add in Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin (though I think Obama will win it handily), and Indiana (a stretch), and you jump up to 76 electoral votes. If Obama carries a majority of the Midwest, he wins the White House.

On issues, weaknesses Obama wants to shore up include military and foreign policy credentials, lack of experience, and expertise on the economy (because it will be so vitally important). That said, he doesn't want anyone too "Washington," too tied up with lobbyists and special interests, too much representative of the past, or else it might undercut his message against McCain. I actually do believe this, because I think 2008 is a transformative year, and people are not yearning for a return to the Clinton years, but an actual change to how Washington runs. Whether this can be achieved is another question, but it seems voters are responding to that message.

Thus I give you my two picks:

1) Senator Jack Reed

Reed has expertise on the economy, and specifically on the housing crisis. He is a likable, solid, liberal guy, but has military experience and the standing to attack McCain's record and look good doing it. These articles explain why picking him would be a good idea better than I can.

One problem is that the governor of Rhode Island is a Republican, but he could only appoint a replacement for about a year, I expect we will make gains in the Senate so that it wouldn't upset the balance, and the next election the true blue voters of RI would vote in a Democrat I'm sure...

2) Senator Evan Bayh

The man is a perennial VP shortlister because he's a good choice. He's boring, white, and centrist, but he fits the Midwest like a glove, and he is undoubtedly qualified to be president. Bayh is a very popular former governor and current senator in a Red State, his campaign commercials have hit Ohio media markets over the years so they know him there, and even though he is a huge DLCer, he can be a bit more populist on trade issues, something that will play well in the Midwest as well. Of course, if there is a problem with disaffected Hillary supporters, he helps there too.

So basically, if we accept the premise that VP doesn't matter in the election, then Bayh and Reed would not be my picks. I would just pick the people I wanted most to be President other than Obama (Richardson, Gore, maybe Bloomberg). But I still do believe VP matters in the election, not because I expect them to carry their own state (I'm not sure Bayh would win Indiana), but because of the signal it sends to the voters about the message of the ticket as a whole. That message I think could be buoyed by the addition of Reed (my first choice) or Bayh.

Here's to Obama-Reed '08

As for uncalled for and early predictions: 52% Obama 45% McCain 3% Barr (roughly 306EV to 232EV)

Update: Slate's VP pick interactive is fun!