Wow, that's a long line.

Hoping to get one last chance to see Barack (as well as an opportunity to finally hear John Kerry and Ted Kennedy, who I hadn't yet seen speaking) I headed over to the World Trade Center with some people in my entryway. Having left nearly two hours before the doors were supposed to open (which was two hours before the event even started), we figured that we would be there in time to get a decent spot.

When we got off the T, we ran into this line, which someone was nice enough to post on DailyKos. The volunteers told us that we only had a bit farther to go. But the line kept going...and going...and going. Apparently around twenty thousand people showed up, making a one mile long line. We ended up being around nearly the nine thousandth in line; we barely made the cut off to get into the room, after waiting in the cold for around three hours.

Cold exhaustion is getting to me, so I'm ready to head to bed before my brain completely shuts down at my computer. However, being one of the few people who noticed the port-a-potty in the adjacent parking lot, I wonder how people were willing to stay in line that long just for a slight glimpse of Obama. It was nearly impossible to see him in that room, but his speech drew the usual roars.

My eyes are starting to shut, so I'll just note that A)there definitely was a big Harvard contingent there that was part of the larger college contingent that dominated the event and B) It's finally super Tuesday. the day has arrived. It's going to be a long but unforgettable event.

Super Tuesday: Watch undecideds and Edwards supporters

TPM has a state-by-state breakdown of the Super Tuesday group. Clinton leads in all the states for which there is polling except three.

But, if I might be so bold as to make a prediction, I bet that undecideds will break pretty heavily for Obama. MoveOn.org, which had a disproportionate number of Edwards supporters until he withdrew from the race, endorsed Barack Obama 70-30. Disappointed Edwards supporters might go to Obama by a similar number (What say you to this, Markus?).

Clinton may (probably will) come out ahead in the delegate count on Tuesday night, but the big story could end up being Obama with unexpected wins in several states, and Clinton with narrower leads than expected in the states that she wins.

My bet is that the race won't be over on Tuesday. Of course, I'm not putting any money on it. 

Super Tuesday Preview

If you're an Obama supporter like myself, you're probably still pumped about Barack's thrashing of Billary last Saturday.  I know I am.  Voters of all racial, social, and age groups rejected the Clintonian version of the fearsome Right Wing Lie Machine, including a quarter of the white vote. Not bad when you're up against two white candidates in a state that still flies the Confederate flag over its capitol.  (Come on South Carolina, you should be proud to be Southerners, but it's been 150 years.  Admit that you guys came up short in the "War of Northern Aggression" and we can all move on.)

With Super Mega Epic Tsunami Godzilla Tuesday a mere week away, there are four major questions that will determine who wins that day:

1.  Can Obama reach out to rank-and-file Dems?

Hillary's base of strength is union members, senior citizens, women, and Latinos, all of whom are considered traditional Democrats.  Obama's base consists of young people (the booby prize of politics), blacks, independents, college graduates, and the rich.  Unfortunately for Obama, many of the states that vote next week hold "closed" primaries, meaning that only registered Democrats can vote.  To win in California, where he's currently behind by 10%, he will have to win over a sizeable chunk of Latinos.  To win in most other states, he'll need to focus on working-class, middle aged voters.  Think Reagan Democrats.  Obama's gotten some solid endorsements in the last week (Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Xavier Becerra, Janet Napolitano) but he'll have to do more than that to be competitive.  

2.  Will the polls start shifting?

Right now, Hillary is leading in almost all of the 2/5 states.  She's probably going to win big in New York and New Jersey, while Obama will win Illinois, Georgia, and Alabama.  Still, if the current trends continue, Hill and Bill will be smiling on Tuesday night.  However, a week is an eternity in politics, and no polls have been released since the Obama win in S.C.  My guess is that as 2/5 voters start paying more attention to the race, the polls will start tightening up, as they did in New Hampshire and Nevada.

3.  Will Bill Clinton take a back seat in the Hillary campaign?

Saturday's results were a repudiation of Bill Clinton's new role as Hillary's attack dog and de facto campaign manager.  Democrats don't want to think of Bill as the bad cop, and Hillary looks foolish by claiming to be "her own woman", while her husband holds such a large role in the campaign.  Some of Bill's most recent statements, such as deriding Obama's candidacy as a "fairy-tale" and comparing his win in South Carolina with Jesse Jackson's triumphs in '84 and '88, were seen as uncouth attempts to marginalize Barack Obama as a Sharptonian "black" candidate, rather than a candidate who happens to be black.  Hillary should have Bill sit out the next couple of plays, while herself trying to appear softer and gentler (some more of those tears wouldn't hurt, either.)

4.  Will there be a nominee on February 6th? 

Depends.  If Hillary wins big in California, NY, NJ, and Mass., it doesn't really matter that the primaries aren't winner-take-all.  She'll get enough momentum and delegates to put her over the finish line.  If Obama can sweep the South and Illinois, win California and Mass. (with a little help from Ted), and be competitive in New York and New Jersey, he'll be unstoppable.  I would guess that something between those two results happens, and that the next few primaries after that determines the winner.  Of course, if John McCain wins the Florida primary tonight, he'll be the presumptive Republican nominee, and the Dems will feel the pressure to avoid a long, acrimonious nomination process.

Whatever happens, it's sure to be an exciting week ahead.  Do whatever you can to support your candidate!