Veepstakes

I think this Wall Street Journal article hit the nail on the head with their short-list of VPs for both McCain and Obama.

For Obama: Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine, Jack Reed, Kathleen Sebelius.

For McCain: Charlie Crist, Carly Fiorina, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Rob Portman, Mitt Romney, John Thune.

I don't think Obama will choose Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine, or Kathleen Sebelius. Dodd because of his connections to the insurance and banking industries. Kaine because he just doesn't seem to offer that much to the ticket besides being from VA and another "outsider." He lacks foreign policy experience, national name recognition, etc. If Obama is inexperienced (of course he isn't, but...), Kaine is a baby. Sebelius because some former Clintonites might be offended that he would pick a woman who wasn't Hillary, and also for the same reasons Kaine is unlikely (no foreign policy experience). I think Bayh, Biden, Clinton, and Reed would all be excellent picks for different reasons, but Reed is still by far my favorite.

As for McCain, I think Crist, Fiorina, and Palin are unlikely. I don't have as many reasons for that. Just more of a hunch. My picks remain Portman, Romney, or Thune. Pawlenty has proven himself, at least in my opinion, to be really boring on the talk show circuit. Portman might also be boring, but he brings major economic street cred. Of course Romney Mittens Guy Smiley would be a dream come true. Thune would be a good pick, although being pretty far right wing, would have some major policy disagreements with McCain.

Guy Smiley on the stump.
How can people like this man? Seriously.

Sebelius' response

The Kathleen Sebelius response speech seems to be getting lukewarm reviews. She spoke rather slowly, and wasn't very passionate.

There's been buzz in some quarters about Sebelius as a possible VP pick, but I think that the chances of that are about nil: true, she's a popular Democratic governor in a conservative state (my home state, Kansas)--and she'd probably bring in the votes of some Midwesterners, but she lacks other qualities that are pretty necessary for a running-mate: namely, the ability to give exciting speeches.

The Democratic response to the SOTU is always an understated affair, but this is the way she always speaks; not a fluke. In fact, her total lack of fire-in-the-belly is probably what's allowed her to be succesful in Kansas. 

Don't get me wrong, she's a good governor--I like her a lot. She's done a lot of good things for Kansas. But I don't think VP is in her future. She should focus instead on running for Sam Brownback's senate seat, which he'll be vacating in 2010, at the same time that she's term-limited out of the governorship. She's got a good chance to be the first Democratic Senator from Kansas in more than 70 years.

More Kansas Politics

Kos has a list of prospective party switches in the 2008 Senate race. and way down at number 21 is Kansas' Pat Roberts, about whom Kos says the following:

21. Kansas (Roberts - R)
You'd think with all the newly minted Democrats in the state that Gov. Sebelius can help us find a good challenger to Roberts. On the other hand, with Sen. Brownback already announcing his retirement, many of the best Democrats would likely wait for a chance at that open seat in 2010.

I think Kos may as well take Roberts off of his list; the chance of a prominent Democrat materializing to take on Roberts with the open seat twinkling in the distance is slim. And even if someone does mount a more than perfunctory campaign, Roberts will probably win. He just pretends to be Bob Dole, and people love him.

I should also note that Sebelius hits her term limit in 2010, just as Brownback's seat will be opening, and it seems to me that she would be pretty unstoppable.