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Debate Live Blog 3: Overconfidence Edition

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 6:20pm by Sam Novey
Ok. Last Debate Tonight. You know what to do. The comments section awaits.
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OMG DEBATE! Who's excited

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 7:16pm by Markus Kolic

OMG DEBATE! Who's excited for something that basically doesn't matter at all?

Also -- for those of you

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 7:44pm by Markus Kolic

Also -- for those of you who'll be watching the little squiggly line on CNN, here's a good explanation of what it is and why it may not be worth paying attention to.

Cliff Zukin, director of the public-policy program at Rutgers University and former head of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, argues that dial-testing is unhelpful and misleading. He points to the fact that the sample of voters is far smaller than even the tiniest poll.

"It has no scientific validity -- it's not a sample of anything that has generalized validity," he says. What's more, he argues, it introduces inaccurate numbers that assume a power of their own. "The problem with bad numbers is that people tend to believe their eyes."

...It's also unclear whether CNN's dial-testing actually represents the reactions of undecided voters. Kirk says her team takes all the steps it can to ensure that the undecided voters in the focus group are actually undecided -- from examining their Facebook pages to concealing that the pre-interview is for CNN -- but she concedes that people who appear on CNN aren't representative of the average voter. "People who agree to come in to dial-test a debate are already people who are committed to the political processes, who are paying attention."

Undecided voters are, on the other hand, on average less informed about politics than voters who have a clear idea of who they're voting for. And even traditional polls have trouble determining who is really undecided, according to Jackman. "We think a lot of our undecideds are actually masquerading -- there's this great tradition of not wanting to sound like your mind's made up," he says.

W00t Sam Boyd! He's swell,

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by DylanMatthews (not verified)

W00t Sam Boyd! He's swell, and has good taste in panini shops.

Katie Couric, on CBS, just

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:01pm by Markus Kolic

Katie Couric, on CBS, just described this debate as "the showdown at the Last Chance Saloon, and Bob Schieffer is bartending." I already want to shoot myself.

This is Jonathan Hawley . .

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:02pm by Jonathan Hawley

This is Jonathan Hawley . . . reporting for duty!

 (Yes, that was a John Kerry reference.  No, it wasn't funny.)

YES YES YES YES YES

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:03pm by Markus Kolic

YES YES YES YES YES

Hahah the squiggly CNN line

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:03pm by G. Emre

Hahah the squiggly CNN line is rising while Bob is talking. This is a ridiculous system, or Bob has a charming, charming tone.

Most people were probably

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by Jonathan Hawley

Most people were probably under the impression that Bob is their grandpa.

Hurting + angry = bitter?

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by Eva Lam

Hurting + angry = bitter?

Not so long as they put

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:05pm by Markus Kolic

Not so long as they put Country First.

Is it just me, or does John

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by G. Emre

Is it just me, or does John McCain sounds dead-ish?

Agreed.

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:05pm by Eva Lam

Agreed.

Goddamnit McCain, fannie and

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by Markus Kolic

Goddamnit McCain, fannie and freddie DID NOT CAUSE THE MORTGAGE CRISIS you gop hack.

"Fannie and Freddie Mae" =

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by Eva Lam

"Fannie and Freddie Mae" = the new Czechoslovakia?

Ewwwwwwwww John McCain.  

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:04pm by Evelyn Wenger (not verified)

Ewwwwwwwww John McCain.

 

McCain tie choice!! Black

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:05pm by Sam Novey

McCain tie choice!! Black stripes, his tie choice for all the debates has been pretty unconventional and this tops it off.

At least McCain appears to

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:06pm by Markus Kolic

At least McCain appears to be looking at Obama this time. Wait, no -- he looked away. WAIT HE'S BACK OMG WHY ARE HIS EYES SO WIDE??

I love how Obama looks right

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:06pm by Jonathan Hawley

I love how Obama looks right into the camera.  Very poised.

I can't even listen to Obama

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:07pm by Markus Kolic

I can't even listen to Obama right now because MCCAIN'S EYES ARE STARING INTO MY SOUL

Dear People in the

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:08pm by Eva Lam

Dear People in the IOP,
Please stop clapping every time you agree with something. They can't hear you.
Yours,
Eva

That was kind of stalker,

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:08pm by Ali Sikora

That was kind of stalker, McCain... sketch much?

I gather there's video of

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:08pm by Markus Kolic

I gather there's video of Obama's encounter with this Ohio plumber guy (that McCain's talking about), which I haven't got around to watching yet. Lemme go find it

This is an interesting

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:08pm by G. Emre

This is an interesting tactic by McCain...this Joe is one lucky duck.

So…John McCain wants

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:09pm by Dylan Matthews

So…John McCain wants everyone to be able to buy a business whenever? The hell?

McCain's explanation of the

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:09pm by Eva Lam

McCain's explanation of the DEVASTATING CHAIN OF EVENTS unleashed by Obama's tax plan sounds an awful lot like "If You Give A Mouse A Cookie." Bedtime story indications?

Joe the Plumber = Joe

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:09pm by Eva Lam

Joe the Plumber = Joe Sixpack?

Either that or McCain's

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:14pm by Lange Luntao

Either that or McCain's planning to start running attack ads against Bob the Builder. I heard he's a pinko union commie.

Incidentally, Joe the

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:09pm by Jonathan Hawley

Incidentally, Joe the Plumber is McCain's pick for Treasury Secretary.

95% what what!

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:10pm by Ali Sikora

95% what what!

Hmm, does Joe the Plumber

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:10pm by Evelyn Wenger (not verified)

Hmm, does Joe the Plumber have any relation to Joe Six-Pack

*courtesy of Meryl

Here it is, possibly.

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:10pm by Markus Kolic

Joe the Plumber recently

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:10pm by Dylan Matthews

Joe the Plumber recently lost his job to two unskilled immigrant workers, Mario and Luigi.

HAHAHAHAHA!

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:11pm by Jonathan Hawley

HAHAHAHAHA!

COMMENT OF THE NIGHT

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:11pm by Eva Lam

COMMENT OF THE NIGHT

wow. I really should read

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:12pm by Will Weingarten

wow. I really should read before I comment. You have my love.

Can we just bring Joe on TV

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:11pm by Eva Lam

Can we just bring Joe on TV now? I feel like that would resolve a lot of questions.

I will make Joe famous, and

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:11pm by Jarret Zafran

I will make Joe famous, and you will know his name!

Oh god please let's have a

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:11pm by Markus Kolic

Oh god please let's have a debate about redistributionism. Conservative ideologues all think it's unpopular because it sounds like socialism, even though they're completely wrong. It's got the exact same terrain as the universal health care debate, but more abstract.

So Obama is going from "that

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:12pm by G. Emre

So Obama is going from "that one" to communist?

McCain is reading too much

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:12pm by Ali Sikora

McCain is reading too much Marx...

If we're talking plumbers, I

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:12pm by Will Weingarten

If we're talking plumbers, I prefer Mario.

I loved how Obama tacked on the part at the end about 98% of small business owners making less than $250,000.

Joe the Plumber- the new my friends?

Giggles are going up every

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:12pm by Eva Lam

Giggles are going up every time anyone says "Joe the Plumber." I no longer know what they're talking about.

Obama's spinning the "Joe

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:12pm by Markus Kolic

Obama's spinning the "Joe the Plumber" thing into a populist argument contrasted against ExxonMobil. Nice work

the addition part of this

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:14pm by Evelyn Wenger (not verified)

the addition part of this blogging thing is becoming a problem for me.

GOP watch party: white

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:14pm by Eva Lam

GOP watch party: white people in sweater-vests looking down at a table, presumably in shame.

These tax statistics McCain

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:14pm by Markus Kolic

These tax statistics McCain is citing, which he also mentioned in the first debate, are misleading -- business taxes are nominally lower in European countries like Ireland, but U.S. taxes have so many deductions and loopholes (and European countries have so many surcharges and user fees) that in the aggregate, America's corporate taxes are among the lowest in the First World.

This marks 2 misleading statements by McCain in 10 minutes.

When 2/3 thirds of

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:17pm by Will Weingarten

When 2/3 thirds of corporations don't pay any income taxes, it's very misleading.

(sorry for asking that question, Eva and Jon. I'm just tired of hearing Republicans talk about high corporate taxes).

Ooh, is someone keeping a

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:14pm by Eva Lam

Ooh, is someone keeping a "my friends" count?

McCain is such a furious

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:16pm by Will Weingarten

McCain is such a furious scribbler. I wonder if he's playing hangman with himself.

Can someone who has the

Posted on Wed, 10/15/2008 - 8:16pm by Emily M (not verified)

Can someone who has the power take the video down from the main post? It's annoying to scroll over every time i refresh....