
Also -- for those of you who'll be watching the little squiggly line on CNN, here's a good explanation of what it is and why it may not be worth paying attention to.
Cliff Zukin, director of the public-policy program at Rutgers University and former head of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, argues that dial-testing is unhelpful and misleading. He points to the fact that the sample of voters is far smaller than even the tiniest poll.
"It has no scientific validity -- it's not a sample of anything that has generalized validity," he says. What's more, he argues, it introduces inaccurate numbers that assume a power of their own. "The problem with bad numbers is that people tend to believe their eyes."
...It's also unclear whether CNN's dial-testing actually represents the reactions of undecided voters. Kirk says her team takes all the steps it can to ensure that the undecided voters in the focus group are actually undecided -- from examining their Facebook pages to concealing that the pre-interview is for CNN -- but she concedes that people who appear on CNN aren't representative of the average voter. "People who agree to come in to dial-test a debate are already people who are committed to the political processes, who are paying attention."
Undecided voters are, on the other hand, on average less informed about politics than voters who have a clear idea of who they're voting for. And even traditional polls have trouble determining who is really undecided, according to Jackman. "We think a lot of our undecideds are actually masquerading -- there's this great tradition of not wanting to sound like your mind's made up," he says.
W00t Sam Boyd! He's swell, and has good taste in panini shops.
Katie Couric, on CBS, just described this debate as "the showdown at the Last Chance Saloon, and Bob Schieffer is bartending." I already want to shoot myself.
This is Jonathan Hawley . . . reporting for duty!
(Yes, that was a John Kerry reference. No, it wasn't funny.)
Hahah the squiggly CNN line is rising while Bob is talking. This is a ridiculous system, or Bob has a charming, charming tone.
Most people were probably under the impression that Bob is their grandpa.
Goddamnit McCain, fannie and freddie DID NOT CAUSE THE MORTGAGE CRISIS you gop hack.
McCain tie choice!! Black stripes, his tie choice for all the debates has been pretty unconventional and this tops it off.
At least McCain appears to be looking at Obama this time. Wait, no -- he looked away. WAIT HE'S BACK OMG WHY ARE HIS EYES SO WIDE??
I can't even listen to Obama right now because MCCAIN'S EYES ARE STARING INTO MY SOUL
Dear People in the IOP,
Please stop clapping every time you agree with something. They can't hear you.
Yours,
Eva
I gather there's video of Obama's encounter with this Ohio plumber guy (that McCain's talking about), which I haven't got around to watching yet. Lemme go find it
This is an interesting tactic by McCain...this Joe is one lucky duck.
So…John McCain wants everyone to be able to buy a business whenever? The hell?
McCain's explanation of the DEVASTATING CHAIN OF EVENTS unleashed by Obama's tax plan sounds an awful lot like "If You Give A Mouse A Cookie." Bedtime story indications?
Either that or McCain's planning to start running attack ads against Bob the Builder. I heard he's a pinko union commie.
Incidentally, Joe the Plumber is McCain's pick for Treasury Secretary.
Hmm, does Joe the Plumber have any relation to Joe Six-Pack
*courtesy of Meryl
Joe the Plumber recently lost his job to two unskilled immigrant workers, Mario and Luigi.
Can we just bring Joe on TV now? I feel like that would resolve a lot of questions.
Oh god please let's have a debate about redistributionism. Conservative ideologues all think it's unpopular because it sounds like socialism, even though they're completely wrong. It's got the exact same terrain as the universal health care debate, but more abstract.
If we're talking plumbers, I prefer Mario.
I loved how Obama tacked on the part at the end about 98% of small business owners making less than $250,000.
Joe the Plumber- the new my friends?
Giggles are going up every time anyone says "Joe the Plumber." I no longer know what they're talking about.
Obama's spinning the "Joe the Plumber" thing into a populist argument contrasted against ExxonMobil. Nice work
the addition part of this blogging thing is becoming a problem for me.
GOP watch party: white people in sweater-vests looking down at a table, presumably in shame.
These tax statistics McCain is citing, which he also mentioned in the first debate, are misleading -- business taxes are nominally lower in European countries like Ireland, but U.S. taxes have so many deductions and loopholes (and European countries have so many surcharges and user fees) that in the aggregate, America's corporate taxes are among the lowest in the First World.
This marks 2 misleading statements by McCain in 10 minutes.
When 2/3 thirds of corporations don't pay any income taxes, it's very misleading.
(sorry for asking that question, Eva and Jon. I'm just tired of hearing Republicans talk about high corporate taxes).
McCain is such a furious scribbler. I wonder if he's playing hangman with himself.
Can someone who has the power take the video down from the main post? It's annoying to scroll over every time i refresh....
OMG DEBATE! Who's excited
OMG DEBATE! Who's excited for something that basically doesn't matter at all?