I'd tag on Begich for the Senate. Even if there's a poll with Stevens up by one, I'm pulling for Begich to grind this one one out. Out of optimism, I'm betting on Franken as well.

It's kind of funny that Hagan's become more of a certainty than those two. The DSCC has done an amazing job with their Elizabeth Dole ads.

So anyway, I guess that puts me at 58-41, with Lieberman there (I'm sorry, I'm not willing to put him as a Democrat). I think Harry Reid's going to face a huge backlash if Lieberman doesn't lose his committee chairmanship.

I'll say Obama takes Kerry States + New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. Is that too optimistic? Maybe slightly, but why not bet big? And of course, I'm not putting West Virginia and ND and Indiana in there, which are all definitely plausible, so I'm not being too crazy.

OK, here goes. As I remember, I am the reigning champion from 2006 predictions, because I was superoptimistic way before everyone else. (I'd double-check, but HARLAN DELETED ALL HIS BLOGPOSTS. YOU SUCK, HARLAN. Unless you didn't do that and they're just gone, in which case, I take it back. Here they are.) So, my title defense:

Obama 375, McCain 163. (This is kind of a no-brainer -- Obama wins everything that's in contention right now. That's his ceiling, as all the remaining red states except maybe WV and ND are too red to be touched.) (...BUT, if nobody calls higher, I'm going to claim the 375-383 range in case WV and ND swing.)

55% Obama, 41% McCain, Barr 2%, Nader 1%, Others 1%

Senate: 59D, 41R (Warner, Udall, Udall, Shaheen, Begich, Merkley, Hagan, Franken) and we kick Lieberman out so it's 58D, 41R, 1I. (This is counting Sanders as a D.)

House: D+23 to 256-179.

Upset of the cycle: Larry Kissell over Robin Hayes in NC-08. This one was unexpectedly close in 06, Kissell is favored this time w/lots of enthusiasm from netroots and DCCC. After Obama wins NC, watch for lots of profile stories about Kissell and the Changing Tide in North Carolina or whatever. (He'll actually win because hé's running as a plain old economic populist, but w/e.)

We're allowed to take ranges?

Ok, here goes:
I'll take the 364-375 range, right between Jarret and Markus. I think the actual count will be Obama 369, McCain 169. Indiana is probably just a bit too far out of reach for the far superior Obama organization to swing it blue, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say West Virginia goes for Obama. We get all the other close states (so basically, I agree with Will but think we'll take WV as well).

Obama 55%, McCain 43%, Nader 1%, Barr 1%, Others less than 1%

I'm probably overly optimistic about the Senate (mostly because I really want to see Lieberman go): 61D, 39R (Warner, Udall, Udall, Shaheen, Begich, Merkley, Hagan, Franken, and then Musgrove and Martin, who will benefit from increased African-American turnout). Lieberman can then get booted without a problem (especially since he's now writing op-eds for Norm Coleman).

House: D+30 to 263-172.

Upset of the cycle: gotta go with my man Dennis Shulman, who just got on the DCCC's Red to Blue list today. If my Musgrove and Martin predictions come true, those would be pretty big upsets too.

Of course, this could all change if Obama admits he's gay during the debate tomorrow...

Obama 51 (360), McCain 44(178), Senate at 57 Dems, and the House at 248 Dems.  

I could pretend to be above scorecard politics, or I could admit that my predictions essentially line up with Will's: we win what 538 assures us we're going to win, but not Indiana or WV. Sorry, but WV is *exactly* where I predict the Bradley effect and also that white, working-class, party-line, "guns and religion" voters will stay home. (I'm not an optimist.) I place Senate at 57 including Lieberman (so actually 56). Lieberman loses his committee chairmanship but keeps his place in the caucus.

Al Franken wins. I don't know if that's an upset at this point, but I love Al Franken, so I really want this to happen. Come on, Al -- prove that politicians can have wit and verve and politically incorrect insights.

Actually I made a mistake on my predictions and totally forgot Begich. So make mine 58D.

Dennis Shulman is totally the upset of the cycle!!!!