I respectfully disagree with your take on the latest polls.

The recent numbers showing Obama with narrow leads, or even statistically even (I know, it’s Rasmussen so it doesn’t really count) are so frustrating to me that I can’t help but feel fairly pessimistic about the way things are going. Three reasons:

1. John McCain is a terrible candidate who is running a terrible campaign. He has made gaffe after gaffe after gaffe (I’m not even bothering to find links for each gaffe because they’re so well-chronicled on this and every other blog in existence), he is uninteresting, he is getting zero media coverage, and everyone hates Republicans right now.

   Barack Obama, on the other hand, is the most exciting candidate the Democrats have ever had. So WHY IS HE ONLY WINNING BY TWO POINTS?! If Obama cannot beat McCain under the current conditions, or even if he wins by a slim margin, I cannot imagine another situation in the foreseeable future in which a Democrat would actually win the Presidency.

2. I disagree that people aren’t paying attention. This election is different from every other before it, and I think people are watching.

   But even if they’re not paying too much attention, every household in every swing state is currently getting bombarded with McCain’s attack ads. And while the ads may be completely freaking ridiculous, the problem is that they’re not being countered by the Obama campaign, and impressions are formed early and are hard to change.

   Obama is afraid to get his feet wet after claiming a "new style of politics." He’s been running his campaign too conservatively, and he has to start firing back early and often. It doesn’t need to be mudslinging. But the fact that this video isn’t seared into the mind of every American and "mental recession" isn’t a household phrase is appalling, considering that this election is gearing up to be all about the economy.

And while he’s at it, he can show McCain’s ads to be the old kind of politics by producing a negative yet substantive ad.

3. I also reject the argument that the race is all about the electoral votes and the popular vote doesn’t matter. Obama’s weak (given the political atmosphere and the events of the race so far) numbers are disappointing from a down-ticket race stand point. Standing on the assumption that a majority of people will vote straight down one of the party lines, Obama needs to start doing better with the working-class white people and the moderately-conservative independents who will be the key to a 6- or 7-seat gain in the Senate and a 30-seat gain in the House (both of which should be attainable given the political climate).