Re(2): Dear Markus

I wish I knew where to find all those cool graphs. Then I might actually stand a chance in these arguments ;)

I think my concerns are best classified as "frustrations" rather than "panic," and upon further reflection I think they lie mostly in my third point.

I don't want Obama to win just by exciting and registering more liberal voters. Don't get me wrong: I think it's amazing that this election is breaking records and the Obama campaign is working so hard to register more people and get them involved; it's a great step forward for this country, and I'm proud to have joined them in registering voters this summer.

But it would be an even bigger step forward if that excitement came coupled with an overwhelming mandate from the center of the electorate for Obama and the Democrats. Maybe I'm too idealistic, but in my mind the Obama campaign in the primaries billed itself as capable of building a broad coalition across the political spectrum, and from the recent numbers I just don't see that happening.

Without that coalition, this movement is just a one-time thing. Republican Senators up for re-election in 2010 and beyond are not going to be scared into voting for health care or alternative energy if they know that the Democrats' win in 2008 came merely from the insurgence of marginal voters who were only inspired by one man and who are not likely to vote again.

We need to be convincing the center of the electorate that, on the major issues (the economy and health care especially) the Democrats are better. Certainly given the way the campaign has gone so far, we should be well on our way to doing that. My disappointment with the state of the race lies in the fact that as yet, we have not.

Maybe it's too early, and all of this will settle itself in the fall. But the only way to make true progress is to move the center of the country left, and I'll judge Obama's overall success on his ability to accomplish that.

Dear Markus,

I respectfully disagree with your take on the latest polls.

The recent numbers showing Obama with narrow leads, or even statistically even (I know, it’s Rasmussen so it doesn’t really count) are so frustrating to me that I can’t help but feel fairly pessimistic about the way things are going. Three reasons:

1. John McCain is a terrible candidate who is running a terrible campaign. He has made gaffe after gaffe after gaffe (I’m not even bothering to find links for each gaffe because they’re so well-chronicled on this and every other blog in existence), he is uninteresting, he is getting zero media coverage, and everyone hates Republicans right now.

   Barack Obama, on the other hand, is the most exciting candidate the Democrats have ever had. So WHY IS HE ONLY WINNING BY TWO POINTS?! If Obama cannot beat McCain under the current conditions, or even if he wins by a slim margin, I cannot imagine another situation in the foreseeable future in which a Democrat would actually win the Presidency.

2. I disagree that people aren’t paying attention. This election is different from every other before it, and I think people are watching.

   But even if they’re not paying too much attention, every household in every swing state is currently getting bombarded with McCain’s attack ads. And while the ads may be completely freaking ridiculous, the problem is that they’re not being countered by the Obama campaign, and impressions are formed early and are hard to change.

   Obama is afraid to get his feet wet after claiming a "new style of politics." He’s been running his campaign too conservatively, and he has to start firing back early and often. It doesn’t need to be mudslinging. But the fact that this video isn’t seared into the mind of every American and "mental recession" isn’t a household phrase is appalling, considering that this election is gearing up to be all about the economy.

And while he’s at it, he can show McCain’s ads to be the old kind of politics by producing a negative yet substantive ad.

3. I also reject the argument that the race is all about the electoral votes and the popular vote doesn’t matter. Obama’s weak (given the political atmosphere and the events of the race so far) numbers are disappointing from a down-ticket race stand point. Standing on the assumption that a majority of people will vote straight down one of the party lines, Obama needs to start doing better with the working-class white people and the moderately-conservative independents who will be the key to a 6- or 7-seat gain in the Senate and a 30-seat gain in the House (both of which should be attainable given the political climate).

Blasphemy

First thing’s first: The Republicans are wrong about off-shore drilling. It’s just another kowtow to the oil companies that control them, and it will produce little to no oil for years to come, not to mention that fact that it just furthers our addiction. There, now that’s out of the way.

I also recognize that yesterday’s Republican protest on the House floor was nothing but a political stunt designed to win points and get people like me buzzing about it.

Well, it worked.

If you haven’t heard, yesterday Nancy Pelosi successfully adjourned the House for a five-week vacation without allowing a vote on offshore drilling. In response, the Republicans refused to leave the floor, staying instead to give rousing speeches in the dark, without microphones, and only to the 30 or so members of the public in the gallery, since CSPAN turns its cameras off when the House is adjourned. Kudos to Rep. John Culberson of Texas, who used Twitter and Qik to post instant updates.

Go ahead, click the link and read the whole Politico post. I promise you won’t be able to get through the whole thing without smiling at least a little. And that’s my point.

The Republicans managed to inspire me on an issue I completely disagree with them about. Can you imagine Congressional Democrats doing that? Of course you can’t. If you could, we would have seen evidence of it in the past two years.

But instead all we’ve gotten is a half-hearted attempt to seem like they’ve accomplished everything (or at least anything) they’ve said they’re going to accomplish.

Speaker Pelosi gets to hide behind the fact that the Senate is holding everything up due to the 60-vote cloture rule. But where is the attempt to rally the American people behind these bills? Where was the response to the talk radio condemnation of immigration reform last summer, which got so many people to call their Senators that it jammed the Senate switchboard and scared Members into voting against it?

We haven’t had that kind of movement surrounding any issue, and Nancy Pelosi is as much to blame for that as Harry Reid, who, well, I’ve dealt with his lack of energy on this blog before. And when he dared Senate Republicans to give up their break to debate the energy crisis, they may not have taken him up on it, but the House Republicans sure did; several of them turned around from their trips home to give speeches during the protest.

In contrast, the only thing we’ve had to be excited about in the last two years is a guy who is currently tied with John McCain when he should be ten points ahead (more on that in a future post).

So congratulations to the House Republicans, who managed to stand up for something they believe in, rather than sitting around hoping an election will fix everything.

The World's Most Amazing Campaign Site

Seriously. Just click here. Words can't begin to describe how awesome it is.

Why I want to become a Supreme Court Justice

I've decided to climb back out of my virtual hole to share with you two reasons why Supreme Court Justice should be above Fireman, President, and Jedi Knight on every kid's list of dream jobs (mostly this is actually just a way of showing off that I've read the New York Times every day this week, but I think you'll enjoy it nonetheless).

First, Barack Obama isn't the only prominent Bob Dylan fan. Apparently Chief Justice John Roberts is too, so much so that he cited a Dylan lyric in an opinion last week. While he gets points for being more original than the 19 judges who have cited Dylan's "You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows" from "Subterranean Homesick Blues," Roberts commits the ultimate sin of getting the lyrics of "Like a Rolling Stone" wrong. O.M.G. I mean, if you're going to put a Dylan lyric in an opinion, you might as well go the full length and include the double negative: "When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose."

Why this is awesome: That line is now a freaking law which will have to be considered as precedent for every court decision in this country from now on. HOW AMAZING IS THAT. Ok, fine, he actually wrote it in a dissenting opinion. But if I were a Supreme Court Justice writing a majority opinion, I could make anything I want into a law, and it would require a Constitutional amendment to overturn it! It brings a whole new meaning to "Activist Judges"!
Can mentally challenged people vote? Yes: "I'm not crazy, I'm just a little unwell."
Is Communism a national security threat? No: "If you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow."
And if I ever heard a child rape case, my entire opinion could be the lyrics to "Don't Stand So Close To Me".

Speaking of child rape, that brings me to my Second Awesome Thing. Apparently writing a Supreme Court opinion doesn't require you to actually know things, as long as no one else remembers to tell them to you.

It turns out that when Justice Kennedy based last week's decision that child rapists cannot be put to death partly on the fact that the Federal government doesn't allow it, he was...well...wrong. In 2006 the Uniform Code of Military Justice was amended by Congress to allow the death penalty for members of the Armed Forces who rape a child. Oh, and the last execution by the military came in 1961...for the rape of an 11-year-old girl.

But Kennedy gets no blame for this mistake, because none of the 10 briefs filed in the case mentioned this law. Here are some of the people who missed this:

• Sen. John Warner and Rep. Duncan Hunter, the sponsors of the bill that contained that provision.

• George W. Bush, who signed the bill into law.
• The staffer(s) who presumably explained to the President what all the big words in the bill meant.
• The Solicitor General, whose job it is to write briefs defending Federal laws.
• The lawyers for both sides of the case.
• All nine Justices.
• The military.

Whoops.

Why this is awesome: First, I could be incorrect and it wouldn't matter; other people would get blamed! And second, Kennedy's decision effectively nullified that portion of the Uniform Code, meaning I could strike down laws I don't even know exist! HOW CRAZY IS THAT.

And finally a reward from myself and the Capitol Steps for reading this far:

Remember when Anderson Cooper had three times as many viewers?

That's right! The Mole is coming back in June!

(No, he wasn't actually that purple back then, and no, unfortunately he won't be hosting this season)

On a side note, while I was searching for Anderson Cooper-filled Mole footage, I came across this (it's the most-viewed on YouTube today):

(My favorite part is 2:30 in)

There Can Only Be One

Mike Huckabee: The Next Class Day Speaker?

I'm actually not kidding about that. He's a very funny man, though this may not be a very good example:

Wanna Guess What President Bush Lied About This Time?

If you guessed that he actually has played golf since the incident that he claims caused him to give up golf in solidarity with the troops, then you're right!

UPDATE: Keith Olbermann provides his, um, passionate commentary on that Politico interview:

Wanna Guess Why President Bush Doesn't Play Golf?

If you guessed "I don't want some mom whose son may have recently died [in Iraq] to see the commander in chief playing golf" then you're right!
I guess those record number of vacation days are perfectly fine, though.

Also, an update on yesterday's post: The AP has called that Mississippi race for Childers, the Democrat.

Cool Things To Look Out For

Two things:

First, if you're worried that tomorrow's vote is going to be boring because Hillary's going to win by an estimated 153 to negative 53 (see what I did there? i still made them add up to 100), there's reason to get excited. Democratic House candidates have have been unlikely winners in a couple special elections recently (Last month: Dennis Hastert's seat; last week: a Mississippi seat that had been held by Republicans since 1975).
There's another open seat in Mississippi (Republican Roger Wicker left to take Trent Lott's seat in the Senate last year) and the special election runoff is tomorrow. In this district that voted 62% for Bush in 2004, Democrat Travis Childers got 49.4% of the vote in the first ballot round, oh so close to getting the majority he needed. If Childers wins tomorrow, the GOP will really start to panic.
UPDATE: Childers won!

Second, Barack Obama said today that he would be willing to debate John McCain in town-hall events during the summer.

Obama, an Illinois senator, was responding to a question citing reports that McCain's advisers have suggested the two should campaign together this summer, debating at town hall meetings without a moderator.

While I realize that this probably means the McCain advisers think McCain will win these debates, I still think this idea is really awesome. Maybe it's just my West Wing idealism, but the voters deserve actual debates on actual issues, and this would be a great way to do it.

Poor Mike Gravel :(

The week started out well for my man Gravel, with an almost-but-not-quite endorsement from an Internet celebrity. And he even learned the Soulja Boy dance, so now he can impress all the girls at his next college party!

But then he went on Fox News only to have Neil Cavuto tell him bluntly to his face that he's not going to be President:

But there's still reason to rejoice! Cavuto said Gravel's a lock for the Libertarian Party endorsement!

Not so fast. Enter former Congressman Bob Barr, who apparently has the GOP scared that his positions make him the Second Coming of Ron Paul (I can't believe I just wrote that phrase) and that Barr will win the 8% of Republicans who have been voting for Paul over McCain even after McCain has secured the nomination (and 16% in PA).

The Libertarian Party picks their nominee by May 26th, and right now Gravel's in good position: 11th out of 11 on the Party's website, behind Barr, "Future/Unannounced Candidate," and "None of the Above."

Harry Reid has all the energy of a sloth covered in molasses

Here is the most boring interview in the history of ever:

Notice how Senator Reid doesn't say a word for the first minute and eight seconds.

If I didn't know any better, I would think that this is the reason why nothing has gotten done in the Senate since the Democrats took the majority.

I really hope we get a nominee soon so we can stop having this nonsense as the face of our party. It's impossible to get excited about that.

Jeremiah Wright's Speech to the NAACP

Open thread. It's definitely worth watching.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Part 4:

Sunday (Bonus) Screening

I know, there's not much that can stand up to Markus's bowling videos (btw, I'm sad that I didn't have enough perseverance to win the prize), but here I go anyway:

First up, Barack Obama boils down the Indiana electorate to "Hoosiers" (which might actually work, judging from my knowledge of Indiana (which comes entirely from "Hoosiers")).
The genius of this video comes from the very uncomfortable-sounding announcer and from the graphic at the end:

Hope 15
Away 5

And now to the main attraction: the White House Correspondents' Dinner, the annual event where President Bush makes fun of everything he's done wrong in the past year, a comedian makes fun of Fox News, and liberals act dismayed at the press for laughing with the President instead of standing up to him but then feverishly search the videos out on YouTube anyway.
Two years ago, of course, was the infamous Stephen Colbert Smackdown, which I have embedded here because it is that awesome:

This weekend, Craig Ferguson (the CBS late-night host and newly-naturalized U.S. citizen) gave it a go, and I think he did a great job. While not nearly as ballsy as Colbert's speech, Ferguson managed to get in some good jabs at the administration while also bringing in some great humor, a conversational tone (which made his speech a lot less awkward than Colbert's), and a unique viewpoint as a new American (including playing dumb to great effect).
Below, my favorite quotes, George Bush conducting the Marine Corps band (quite well, actually), and all three parts of the Ferguson speech (I've even put them in order for you). Enjoy!

A reporter from -- what's the name of that paper? The Mound? The Hill!

It's your task to watch the government, to make sure they don't exceed their power. Uh, well done on that, by the way, the past eight years. [knowing look to Dick Cheney]

FERGUSON: During your administration there was not one single sex scandal in the White House. Not one. Except the time when Barney humped the Pope's leg.
BUSH [to guy sitting next to him]: What did he say?
GUY: [repeats it]
BUSH: [George W. Bush laugh/chuckle thing that Jon Stewart is not any good at imitating]

(btw, I love how Barney the dog has a Wikipedia page)

I didn't embed the President's speech, because it was not actually funny at all, except for this one line:

For eight years as Vice President, Dick has ridden shotgun. That's probably not the best analogy.